China has begun cosying up to Niger to establish a second military base in Africa, capitalizing on the US’s struggles in maintaining its presence. Past developments signal China’s genuine interest in Niger as a potential partner for strategic alignment and economic cooperation.
In Niger, the United States was forced to stop its military operations in March 2024. A landlocked western African country in the Sahara desert, Niger might not immediately seem like a key ally for the U.S., but it certainly served as a crucial staging ground for the U.S. military to carry out work and respond to terrorism in the region. Niger’s new ruling junta had recently declared that the U.S. military presence was a violation of Niger’s constitution. The fate of the U.S.‘ presence, including two military drone bases, remained uncertain.
As far as China is concerned, it has historically shown a willingness to engage with autocratic regimes, viewing them as more reliable partners for economic cooperation and strategic alignment. This is in sharp contrast to Western powers which have given priority to democratic governance and human rights. The military junta that seized power in Niger represents a potential opportunity for China to consolidate its influence and secure its interests in the country.
China’s approach to Niger mirrors its strategy in other regions, such as Afghanistan, where it has sought to fill the power vacuum left by the withdrawal of Western forces. China’s support for military junta in Myanmar is another example. By cultivating close ties with authoritarian regimes and providing economic assistance and infrastructure projects, China aims to bolster its presence and influence in strategically important areas.
Despite China’s emphasis on non-interference and peaceful development, its growing military capabilities and expanding global footprint raise concerns. Western powers and regional actors are alarmed by China’s assertiveness in territorial disputes and the establishment of military bases in strategic locations.
In Niger’s case, China’s interest in consolidating its position and potentially seeking military cooperation cannot be ruled out. The country’s vast territory, porous borders, and internal security challenges make it an attractive partner for China’s security objectives in Africa. By securing military agreements and establishing a presence in Niger, China could enhance its ability to protect its investments, counter terrorism, and project power in the region.
However, China’s ambitions in Niger are not without challenges and risks. The complex geopolitical dynamics of West Africa, including competition with other global powers and local resistance to foreign military presence, present obstacles to China’s strategic objectives. Moreover, the uncertain political landscape in Niger, marked by internal divisions and security threats, poses a threat to China’s long-term interests in the country.
The recent political upheaval in Niger, marked by a military coup and border disputes with neighboring Benin, underscores the strategic significance of the country for China. The closure of Niger’s land border with Benin and the subsequent sanctions imposed by Benin have disrupted China’s plans for oil exports, highlighting the vulnerability of its investments to political instability.
Why Niger so important?
Niger’s geopolitical importance has grown over the last decade or so in the context of the fight against armed jihadi groups in the region, the collapse of the state in Libya, and irregular migration to Europe—a much older economic link lies at the heart of the special relationship between Niger and France.
Niger’s geographical position at the crossroads of North, West, and Central Africa; its mineral and oil resources; its potential for the development of renewable energies; and its strong demographic growth help explain the seemingly outsize interest of medium and large powers in the current crisis.
Niger’s importance has grown multiple times because of uranium, a strategic mineral for both civilian and military purposes. Niger is currently the seventh-largest uranium producer in the world and provides about 5 percent of the world’s uranium output. The reality was that instead of uranium, the discovery of increasingly large oil deposits attracted China.
According to an article in the carnegieendowment website, production began in 2011 with a daily output of 20,000 barrels. The oil was extracted by the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and piped to Zinder, a city in the south-central part of Niger, where it was refined. Niger had conditioned the drilling rights on construction of a refinery, making China the Niger government’s strategic partner in the development of its oil resources.
In mid April this year, CNPC signed a memorandum of understanding with Niger government worth 400 million US dollars linked to the sale of crude oil from its Agadem oilfield. Niger’s military junta had agreed to at a seven percent interest rate and repayment in oil for a period of 12 months. “China is a great friend to Niger; we can never say it enough,” Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Ali MahamanLamineZeine said at the signing ceremony. An export pipeline project backed by CNPC subsidiary PetroChina (601857.SS), opens new tab was officially launched last November, linking the Agadem oilfield to the port of Cotonou in neighbouring Benin.
Previously, the West African country had a small oil refinery with capacity of around 20,000 bpd that mostly supplies Niger’s domestic fuel market. ..But China’s first imports of crude oil from Niger’s military junta recently hit a blow as the neighbouring Benin prevented from docking at the port. The oil arrived in three vessels. CNPC had invested some $4.6 billion in Niger’s oil industry, including the construction of a 1,200-mile pipeline transporting crude oil from Niger to Benin. The pipeline was set to begin shipping 90,000 bpd in May and up to 110,000 bpd at full capacity.
The deal has been disrupted by the coup in Niger last July, in which the military junta seized power and closed its land border with Benin, which in turn slapped sanctions on Niger.
Despite China’s interest in consolidating its position in Niger, recent disruptions to oil exports underscored the challenges posed by political instability and regional conflicts. How will China manipulate and navigate complex political landscapes is a big question. The global community is keeping a close watch on China and its maneuverings.
