Independent Financial Analyst (PHOTO/Courtesy).
KAMPALA – To enlist the expression of Chinua Achebe in describing the state of affairs in his native Nigeria, this time in the Ugandan context, and through a meteoric frame of reference; it’s safe to say that: “Uganda is on the brink of a precipice”— a climatic disaster!
If you live or have visited Uganda in the last month, you have experienced (or are currently experiencing) sizzling temperatures resulting from the scorching sun. This prompted someone to jokingly ask: “But who’s paying the sun to shine like this?” And another, “This heat in Kampala can make you dry and wet at the same time”.
This is all because Kampala has recorded temperatures as high as 33°C with many days this year so far recording temperatures above 31°C; and parts of northen Uganda — Kitgum experiencing highs of up to 41°C according to weather forecasts.
These temperatures are accompanied by high humidity levels next to 45% as observed on 13 January 2022 by BBC Weather.
The simple explanation for these piping-hot conditions — climate change.
According to a climate change fact sheet released by USAID about Uganda in September 2015, it has been noted that mean annual temperatures have gone up in Uganda by about 1.3°C since 1960.
The paper continues to highlight how the average number of hot days per year in Uganda increased by 74, and hot nights per year by 136, for the period 1960 and 2003.
The document goes on to detail that for the stretch between 1990–2009, peak temperatures have seen a 1.2°C increase. This might seem small but for every 1°C increase, the atmosphere can hold 7% more water vapour bringing about unprecedented storm surge and severe floods. Not to mention lightning strikes rise by 10%–12% effectuating wildfires like those that have singed Australia, California.
A 1°C increase in temperature means less water available for mankind and intense and frequent heatwaves whose outcome is dehydration, acute kidney injury and death. Sadly, global heating is irreversible: a Celsius gained can’t be shed off. It can only be maintained.
Uganda’s rainfall amounts have not been spared either since they have dropped at an average of 3.4mm per month per decade.
This has translated into frequent severe droughts in the country especially in the northern and western parts.
This frightful scenario Uganda finds herself in is an aftermath of the casualness of the people in charge who haven’t fully apprehended the seriousness of the subject matter; originating with the president of Uganda — Yoweri Museveni.
President Museveni’s cavalier stance on climate change is exuded in his murky October 24 2021 article in the Wall Street Journal where he christened climate change a ‘western climate goal’. This he did days before he attended the UN climate change conference in Scotland.
In the past (2007 and 2011), the president proposed the giveaway of 7,100 hectares of forest land — Mabira forest, for sugarcane growth to solve the sugar crisis in the country. This was smothered by country-wide opposition of his (Museveni’s) proposal.
The only logical explanation for the indifference to climate change by the authorities and natives is that we (Ugandans) believe that our carbon footprint is not ‘that bad’.
This is partly because greenhouse gases emitted by Uganda as of 2018 as reported by the World Bank are at 0.143. This is smallish in comparison to Kenya that has got a carbon footprint of 0.4, Libya 8.8; Nigeria 0.7 and Bostwana 3.6.
Despite the distinct ramifications of climate change on Uganda’s economy; the powers-that-be and the natives don’t see the connection between climate change, their personal finances, and the economy at large.
The largest impact of climate change is that it would wipe off up to 18% of GDP worldwide of the global economy by 2050 if global temperatures rise by 3.2°C, warns the Swiss Re institute.
For the Middle Eastern and African region, the institute articulates that even in the confines of the Paris target (below 2°C), those countries, Uganda inclusive are bound to drop 4.7% of their GDP.
Swiss Re institute continues to forewarn that a 2°C temperature increase would wipe out up to 14% of the GDP of Middle Eastern and African countries— Uganda inclusive. That’s huge when compared to Europe that would lose 7.7% of its GDP with a 2°C temperature increase.
Therefore, President Museveni baptising climate change ‘a western climate goal’ is misleading because if push-comes-to-shove, Africa will suffer more; so, climate change should be dubbed an ‘African climate goal’.
A direct result of climate change in Uganda is the frequent and severe flooding problem that has led to the fierce loss of lives, property; infrastructure, etcetera.
As attested by a study conducted in 2020 by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) of seven districts; and 73 sub-counties in flood-affected districts in Eastern and Western Uganda: Bududa, Bulambuli; Bundibugyo, Kasese; Manafwa, Sirinko and Namisindwa. Over 248,210 people were affected by floods. On top of that, more than 10,000 homes were completely destroyed and 132,345 people displaced.
These floods are a danger to agriculture seeing as they have swept away gardens of crops and destroyed infrastructure — schools, roads; bridges, hospitals. This is harmful to the economy because agriculture and infrastructure are the backbone of Uganda’s economy.
Forbye, droughts have had the same detrimental effect on Uganda’s economy. A 2008 National Drought Report by the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Office of the Prime Minister; and the Department of Disaster Preparedness and Refugees reads: “Uganda has experienced cyclical (within a range of 10 to 12 years), frequent and severe droughts in most parts of the country”.
This report discloses that up to 2,081,000 people have been affected by the droughts that have ravaged Uganda in the last 24 years: January ’98, August ’99; June 2002, and March 2005.
These droughts have ended in chronic food insecurity, reduced water levels; unbearable temperatures, death of livestock; and a decline in the size and quality of produce especially in the absence of functional irrigation systems. Directly impacting the economy albeit adversely.
Withal, 50%–80% of economic losses caused by natural disasters are uninsured and are supported by loans. This means that if they are wiped out, the businesses and financial institutions that provided the loans, make giant losses.
Further, major industries and sectors in the economy that are not adjusting to net zero (global campaign to reduce greenhouse gases to slim quantities); face the risk of being globally blackballed by donors and prospective business partners. (Who on their part) are doing their best to reduce their carbon footprint and would rather not identify with ‘elements’ that are not mindful of the environment.
Another unfavorable effect of climate change on the economy of Uganda is, the government is inevitably going to pick up expensive loans from the World Bank and IMF in the name of transitioning to clean energy. This will add to the already dire debt problem considering most of the loans will be swindled and new loans will have to be taken. The borrowing cycle will continue ceaselessly.
For what it’s worth, Uganda has taken ‘measures’ to tackle the climate change problem. For instance, it proposed a bill — The National Climate Change Act in August 2021.
The country was also well represented at the UN climate change conference in Scotland in 2021. Not to mention, Uganda is a party to the Paris Agreement.
Uganda’s commitment to climate change is confusing because on one hand, it preaches and practices a contrarian climate change gospel (going ahead with preparations to produce fossil fuels, used imported cars are a sensation in the country; charcoal made from cutting trees still the most prevalent source of domestic fuel, etc.); while on the other hand, it signs and attends climate change agreements and conferences. This is as confusing as a pot-bellied man with ulcers!
As a native who understands how my fellow countrymen ‘move’, I am extremely confident in the fact that the talk of formulating a climate change policy by government officials and technocrats; is simply to find a way to take a swig of the $100 billion that was promised annually by ‘developed’ countries to ‘developing’ countries in Denmark in 2009; to fight the climate change crisis under the umbrella — climate financing.
This obligation hadn’t yet been met but according to a report — Forward-looking Scenarios of Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries 2021– 2025, the financing is likely to commence in 2023 hence the galvanized policy-making.
Mark Kidamba is an Independent Financial/Investment Analyst.
Twitter: @m_kidamba
