KAMPALA – I have been observing the games Museveni has played with the so called opposition and could not help feeling sorry for Uganda’s democratic credentials. It appears somebody somewhere woke up from their sleep and advised the man the dangers of creating a one party state by suffocating the opposition. That could be the explanation why he backtracked on his threat of wiping out the opposition. He therefore changed his strategy by giving political space to selected “opposition” parties with an understanding to operate under his whims.
Armed with the fear of antagonizing the donors, Museveni hatched a plan and entered into a marriage of convenience with the liberal opposition to camouflage the image of his NRM party that no longer appeals to a common Ugandan. The purpose of this strategy was to envelope, cocoon, fund and confine the existing political parties to small areas of the country while at the same time ensuring they serve his interests.
Without much ado, let me take the readers through the plan that was hatched for the Uganda People’s Congress faction (UPC) under Jimmy Akena, The Democratic Party faction under Norbert Mao and the Forum for Democratic Change faction under Amuriat and Nandala. All the factions have been created by the system of divide and rule. After a vigorous shake up, the faction that remained afloat is the one that found itself in bed with the NRM Party.
Museveni began by causing confusion in the UPC and waited on the other side with a trap. The first victim of his scheme was the disgruntled President Akena James Michael Jimmy, the son of former President of Uganda. Akena wanted very much to remain relevant at Uganda house and was aware that it was only Museveni with the capacity to save him. He was helped to achieve his desire but subject to conditions.
To date, he remains the President of UPC even when the court ruled otherwise. The other members of UPC have been left guessing the direction of the party while others have joined Museveni and the rest have chosen to keep a low profile. There is no doubt the Akena led faction is in bed with NRM and I am sure they have entered into some agreements that will for some time keep them as “husband” and “wife” in exchange for favours.
For Akena, the whole of Lango sub region was curved out for him with the corresponding benefits. In that region, Akena commands a lot of respect and on many occasions he has been given an open cheque to decide who becomes Member of Parliament or local council leader. A few who have gone through on the NRM or FDC ticket have won because Akena willed so or was directed by the powers that be to allow some yellow in the region.
You may recall the bi-election that brought in Dr. Apio Eunice as MP Oyam North, the NRM openly told their losing NRM candidate not to appeal as the winner was part of the friendly force of the ruling party. No wonder all the MPs from Lango sub region have hardly done much to put the NRM government into check. They are neither members of the opposition nor NRM but they have done nothing to play their over sight role on the floor of parliament. A look at all the list of MPs and their political parties, one will realise all UPC members of Parliament come from Lango sub- region and nowhere else. Is it because the people of Lango are rewarding Milton Obote or that the NRM is not interested in winning back the support of the Langi?
The question is, has NRM made any effort to reclaim Lango sub-region, the answer is no because all the Members of Parliament from the region support NRM programs. So why fight them yet they are not hostile to the ruling Party. This in effect means Lango sub region is but only a disguised opposition stronghold under the UPC. Even the likes of Cecilia Ogwal who used to be vocal have become mute for unknown reasons; you think she is still in the opposition?
Museveni is aware that many Ugandans are tired of his NRM outfit and thus the need to use the existing parties to break even. That is exactly the same plan that has been hatched to confuse the people of Acholi sub region. There is a plan to use the person of Mao through his branch of DPto weaken FDC in Acholi sub region and the only person fit for that role is Norbert Mao, a son of the soil as the saying goes. Don’t be surprised if you see his name on the ballot paper for some constituency in Acholi sub-region.
During the so called home coming, the Democratic Party under Norbert Mao had promised to shed light on his controversial marriage with the ruling NRMbut resorted to his usual comic rhetoric of narrating mind boggling stories in complicated English full of proverbs and metaphors, he concluded his speech without revealing why he betrayed the cause of the Democratic Party and the wider opposition. Infact all the speeches of the day were reminiscent of a newly wedded couple sealing their marriage.
The homecoming under the theme of “It’s Time” Left onlookers trying to decipher the intentions of the celebration and why they were held in Gulu the heart of Acholi sub region. Was it a celebration of Mao’s return to his roots or it was a gesture that it was time to bury the hatchet and push the interests of the region through the person of Norbert Mao. Whatever happened on 22ndJuly 2023 at Kaunda stadium was not by default or coincidence.
Equally, the choice of Gulu was planned from state house and only implemented by people who did not know the agenda of Museveni. The choice of Gulu was strategic for future reasons; it was a constituency in the making to cover the whole of Acholi sub region as shall be highlighted later in this write up. One would think the regional tier system is being implemented in silence and or default. Like it is in Kenya, we may have power rotating from Western Uganda to the North and from the North to western Uganda.
In his own words, Mao told the country that his home coming function would be anchored on a number of issues such as positioning a new conversation that focuses on giving cooperation and neutral agreements a chance to reduce political pressure in the country that has potential to cause violence. He also claimed the function would focus on the unification of the greater North and a clear message that Northern Uganda still needs intervention.
This strategy would in one way or another propel Norbert Mao as a messenger of hope for the north especially Acholi sub region.As you may be aware, the people of Acholi sub region suffered a lot during the insurgency of the civil wars ushered in by Alice Lakwena and later Joseph Kony of the Lord’s Resistance Army, no wonder Norbert Mao is packaging himself as healer of those wounds that many blame on this government.
Because of the past experiences, the people of Acholi sub region were and are still angered that the government did not do much to protect them from Lakwena and Kony. They were slowly but surely turning to the opposition FDC in an attempt to send a message to Museveni that they had had enough of his rule. My guts tell me there is a likelihood that Museveni may consider amending the law so that future Presidents are elected by parliament.
Just like Jimmy Akena, Norbert Mao will be helped to remain the President of his DP faction as long as he wants and create a constituency for him as a Member of Parliament. He will be given all the necessary resources and man power to overpower the conservatives. All the MPs that Norbert Mao will bring on board in the year 2026 will be pro NRM. They will descend to parliament with one thing at the back of their mind, support all the NRM programs and in return get favours and service delivery back home.
Let us look at FDC. The party that once boasted of being the biggest opposition party is now a shadow of its past. It has been split into two with one group at Katonga under Lukwago and another at Najanankumbi under Amuriat and Nandala. It appears obvious the Najanankumbi group is the one working with Museveni and will soon make its statement on the political scene leaving Besigye group in the cold.
Those behind Nandala and Amuriat and not thinking of Buganda region, they are focused on using Nandala and Amuriat to conquer some territories in the east. Amuriat will be tasked to win some parts of Teso and even contest for a parliamentary seat himself and win. Nandala Mafabi will be helped to confuse Bugisu sub region and also bounce back as an MP. All the MPs brought in by Amuriat and Nandala will come to Parliament as allies of the NRM party.
Finally, a break-away group of MPs opposed to Katonga from within Buganda will be given support to bounce back. This effort will also be backed by another group of MPs from within Buganda that is about to break away from the National Unity Platform which will also be funded to bounce back with clear agreements to side with the ruling NRM Party. Another group is yet to emerge from within Busoga shunning NUP and another shall emerge from west Nile to join hands with Museveni making the 2026 election a foregone conclusion.
With this formation, the ground will be leveled to keep NRM a little longer in power but his son will not be on the ballot paper. It is Museveni himself who is coming to contest. He will then rule for about one or twoyears before an act of God happens. The Army will then take over power and unfortunately hand it over to Mk in what will be termed as a transitional government. Any subsequent election will see the emergence of running mates where either Nandala or Norbert Mao will be appointed to traverse the country alongside MK in a bid to be elected.
Wadada Rogers is a commentator on political, legal and social issues.
